Draft: Price for Luck would be astronomical

Draft: Price for Luck would be astronomical
October 22, 2011, 1:28 pm
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It is a little bit too early to talk about the draft but lately I have been inundated with tweets and other messages about the possibility of the Redskins trading up to get the top pick to put Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in burgundy and gold. I suppose that this is related to the Redskins current quarterback quandary with John Beck taking over the reigns for Rex Grossman but neither doing much to excite the fan base for the long term.And since I'm here to find out what you want to know about, I looked into what it might take for the Redskins to be able to draft Luck next April.I dont think that Mike Shanahan would consider doing that, but just for the heck of it, lets look at how much it might take to pull off such a deal.Lets figure that the Redskins finish the year 8-8. That would mean going 5-6 in their final 11 games, a reasonable supposition given the way they are playing. Depending on how the tiebreakers shake out, they would end up with something around the 16th overall pick.According to the draft value chart, the top pick is worth 3000 points and the 16th pick is worth 1000. So, on the face of it, the Redskins would have to give up their first-round picks in next years draft plus picks in 2013 and 2014 to move up to the top spot.Not so fast. Picks in future years are discounted to less than their full chart value. This is where it starts to get cloudy. Something like a second and third in 2012 would be a start towards evening up the deal but high picks in future drafts also would have to be added. That or a young starting player with a reasonably cap-friendly salary such as Ryan Kerrigan or Brian Orakpo.There could be an added premium because the target is a coveted quarterback. As I was writing this, word that 31-year-old Carson Palmer was just traded from the Bengals to the Raiders for one first-round pick and another that will be either a first or a second. If he is worth that, what is Luck worth?If the Redskins end up drafting a little higher, the compensation would go down some. If they are picking in the 20s, the compensation will go way up. Regardless, it is going to be astronomical.This presumes, of course, that the team holding the top pick is willing to trade it away. The Rams might and the Colts could be tempted. But the Dolphins would not trade the pick for any compensation that is even borderline sane.The Redskins do need a long-term solution at quarterback. Redskins fans should get it into their heads that it is highly unlikely that Andrew Luck will be that solution.Fortunately, there are other quarterbacks out there. Will a full array of draft picks and a full offseason to work with, Mike Shanahan will find a guy who he thinks will be able to get it done.
Rich Tandler blogs about the Redskins at www.RealRedskins.com. You can reach him by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.