James predicts Nats 2012 stats

James predicts Nats 2012 stats
January 20, 2012, 8:01 pm
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Plenty of experts out there -- not to mention plenty of fans -- believe the Nationals will be a significantly improved club this year, citing a core group of young players poised to breakthrough at the same time.

But those predictions are based mostly on observation, not hard stats. For that, we turn to Bill James, the father of sabermetrics who every winter publishes his player projections for the following season.

These are entirely stat-based projections, and they heavily account for historical precedent (ie. comparing these current players to former players whose careers followed similar arcs).

So, how does James project various members of the Nationals will perform in 2012? Let's take a look. (Note: He doesn't offer a projection for Stephen Strasburg, based on his lack of games pitched last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery)...

RYAN ZIMMERMAN
Actual 2011 stats: .289.355.443, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 101 games
Projected 2012 stats: .291.363.486, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 139 games

JAYSON WERTH
Actual 2011 stats: .232.330.389, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 150 games
Projected 2012 stats: .259.360.451, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 146 games

MICHAEL MORSEActual 2011 stats: .303.360.550, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 146 games
Projected 2012 stats: .291.347.505, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 140 games

ADAM LaROCHEActual 2011 stats: .172.288.258, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 43 games
Projected 2012 stats: .255.333.445, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 87 games

DANNY ESPINOSAActual 2011 stats: .236.323.414, 21 HR, 66 RBI, 158 games
Projected 2012 stats: .248.329.445, 25 HR, 74 RBI, 158 games

IAN DESMONDActual 2011 stats: .253.298.358, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 154 games
Projected 2012 stats: .268.317.394, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 143 games

WILSON RAMOSActual 2011 stats: .267.334.445, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 113 games
Projected 2012 stats: .267.317.431, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 113 games

JORDAN ZIMMERMANNActual 2011 stats: 8-11, 3.18 ERA, 161 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 11-8, 3.39 ERA, 175 IP

GIO GONZALEZActual 2011 stats: 16-12, 3.12 ERA, 202 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 11-13, 3.83 ERA, 209 IP

CHIEN-MING WANGActual 2011 stats: 4-3, 4.04 ERA, 62 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 7-6, 3.78 ERA, 119 IP

JOHN LANNANActual 2011 stats: 10-13, 3.70 ERA, 184 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 8-12, 4.40 ERA, 180 IP

ROSS DETWILERActual 2011 stats: 4-5, 3.00 ERA, 66 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 5-7, 4.46 ERA, 109 IP

DREW STORENActual 2011 stats: 6-3, 2.75 ERA, 75 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 5-3, 2.63 ERA, 72 IP

TYLER CLIPPARDActual 2011 stats: 3-0, 1.83 ERA, 88 IP
Projected 2012 stats: 6-4, 3.03 ERA, 86 IP