The dangers of working with small sample sizes

The dangers of working with small sample sizes
September 20, 2012, 2:46 pm
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As long as were talking about Robert Griffin III beingon pace to run the ball 160 times for 1008 yards this year, lets look at what a few other Redskins skill players are on pace to do.RB Alfred Morris352 carries for 1482 yards and 16 touchdowns. He could be on a pace to score more touchdowns but RG3 played touchdown vulture on Sunday after Morris had carried the team well into the red zone.TE Fred Davis32 receptions for 408 yards and no TDs. Davis is just as unlikely to keep up this slow pace as Morris is to keep up his fast start. Hes due for 8 receptions for 95 yards and a TD sometime soon.WR Josh Morgan48 receptions for 568 yards and no touchdowns. After a one-catch debut in New Orleans, Morgan became Griffins favorite target against the Rams with five receptions for 50 yards.WR Aldrick Robinson48 receptions for 736 yards and 8 touchdowns. This would give him a year similar to Anthony Armstrongs 2010 season (448713) only with more touchdowns. Of course, if only he had managed to hold on to the long RG3 pass that bounced off of his arms and shoulder pads on Sunday he would be on a much gaudier pace.WR Pierre GaronA projection dilemma here since he missed the Rams game. Do we take his two-game numbers and multiply them by 8 as we have with the other players? That would yield a line of 328728. Or we could just throw out the game he missed, figure hell miss one more along the way and multiply his one game by 14 to get 56151214. His actual performance is likely to fall somewhere in between.I think that you can see that projecting numbers based on two games is mostly folly. In almost every case, the players here will have season numbers significantly higher or lower than their two-game pace would indicate. Sometimes instant analysis doesnt work; we will have to wait and see how things play out over the course of the season.