The number crunchers say the Redskins are better

The number crunchers say the Redskins are better
December 28, 2012, 3:30 pm
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If you believe the more noted number crunchers out there, the Redskins should beat the Dallas Cowboys and they should do so fairly easily. According to all of the most-cited services, the Redskins are the better team.

Here is a look around:

Jeff Sagarin ratings

Redskins 22.52
Cowboys 20.30

Adding in three points for home field advantage, the Redskins are favorites by about five points

Football Outsiders

Weighted DVOA

Redskins 13.1% (8th in NFL)
Cowboys 1.1% (15th)

Pro Football Reference

Simple rating system

Redskins 3.1
Cowboys 0.6

With home-field advantage, the Redskins come out as 5.5-point favorites.

Advanced NFL Stats

Generic win probability

Redskins .56 (8th in NFL)
Cowboys .50 (17th)

Anything can happen in one game. A mistake at the wrong time, an injury early in the game, a bounce of the ball one way or the other or something else that has little to do with which team is better can flip the outcome of the game.

In the Ravens game, the slightest bobble of the ball while Niles Paul’s fumble was gathered in caused the recovery to take place just out of bounds. If not for that momentary bobble the Redskins would almost certainly have lost that game. There is no reason to think that a similar twist of fate couldn’t decide the Redskins-Cowboys game this Sunday.

But when it comes to making a prediction, looking at the consistency of the number cruncher types makes a pretty solid case for going with the Redskins. Both offenses are strong but the Redskins’ defense is playing a little bit better now. And it seems that the Cowboys are a bit spooked by the prospect of the weather being cold on Sunday night and that may come into play.

Alfred Morris runs for 135 yards and two touchdowns, Tony Romo throws two picks, RG3 throws for 250 and two touchdowns and the Redskins advance to the playoffs five years to the day after the last time they did. That was with a win over Dallas at FedEx Field on Dec. 30, 2007.

Redskins 35, Cowboys 24